據油價網7月1日報道，航運業消息人士周三對路透表示，由于需求復蘇和石油市場結構變化，海上石油儲量已開始減少，預計今年下半年將繼續下滑。

根據路透援引IHS Markit的數據顯示，截至6月底，原油浮動儲存量從4月的高達1.8億桶降至1.5億桶以下，當時全球石油日需求銳減3,000萬桶。IHS Markit對路透表示，海上成品油儲量也從5月中旬接近7,500萬桶的峰值降至5,000萬桶。

根據國際能源署(IEA)的估計，5月原油浮動儲存量從4月的歷史高點1.722億桶下降640萬桶，至1.658億桶。

根據彭博社（Bloomberg）的估計顯示，6月初，隨著大多數歐洲國家解除封鎖，北海石油的浮動存儲量開始減少。

除了石油需求從4月份的低迷水平上升外，最近幾周石油價格的市場結構也發生了變化，使得海上石油儲備——4月份石油行業最賺錢的交易——在財務上不再可行。

布倫特原油期貨曲線從4月的超級遠期溢價開始趨平，并在最近幾個月轉為現貨溢價，這消除了石油交易機構在石油需求崩潰時從價格結構中獲利的最重要的財務動機。在超級期貨溢價中，近月價格遠低于未來幾個月的價格，表明原油供應過剩，為未來銷售而儲存石油有利可圖。

6月中旬，減產和石油需求上升幫助布倫特原油價格結構轉向現貨溢價，顯示現貨石油市場趨緊。

現貨溢價是在市場虧損時通常發生的市場狀況。在現貨溢價中，近月合約的價格高于遠月合約的價格。

郝芬 譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Oil Glut At Sea Starts To Shrink

The huge volumes of oil held at sea have started to shrink and are expected to continue declining into the second half of this year, thanks to recovering demand and a change in the oil market structure, shipping sources told Reuters on Wednesday.

According to data from IHS Markit, cited by Reuters, crude oil in floating storage dropped to below 150 million barrels by the end of June, from as high as 180 million barrels in April, when global oil demand crashed by 30 million barrels per day (bpd). The volume of refined oil products held at sea also dropped—to 50 million barrels, from a peak of nearly 75 million barrels in the middle of May, IHS Markit told Reuters.

According to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), floating storage of crude oil dropped in May by 6.4 million barrels to 165.8 million barrels, from its all-time high of 172.2 million barrels in April.

Estimates by Bloomberg showed earlier in June that floating storage of North Sea oil had started to shrink as most of Europe lifted their lockdowns.

Apart from oil demand rising from the depressed levels in April, the market structure of oil prices has changed in recent weeks, making storing oil at sea – the most profitable play in oil in April – no longer financially viable.

From a super contango in April, the Brent Crude futures curve has flattened and flipped to backwardation for the nearest months, wiping out the most significant financial incentive for oil trading houses to profit from the price structure when oil demand crashes. In the super contango, front-month prices were much lower than prices in future months, pointing to a crude oil oversupply and making storing oil for future sales profitable.

In the middle of June, production cuts and an uptick in oil demand helped the Brent Crude price structure flip to backwardation, signaling a tightening of the physical oil market.

Backwardation – the opposite of contango – is the market situation that typically occurs at times of market deficit. In backwardation, prices for front-month contracts are higher than the ones further out in time.