據(jù)10月12日Gas World報(bào)道，受中國、日本和南亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長帶動(dòng)，今年冬天液化天然氣的需求預(yù)計(jì)將增加40億立方米。

這是根據(jù)天然氣出口國論壇(GECF)最近組織的“全球液化天然氣的冬季前景”視頻會(huì)議的部分結(jié)果得出的。該活動(dòng)是在上周舉辦的，有一個(gè)專家小組，液化天然氣研究與預(yù)測主管安妮?凱特?布雷維克(Anne Kat Brevik)、液化天然氣首席分析師勞拉?佩奇(Laura Page)以及信息提供商Refinitiv的高級(jí)分析師亨基先生參與其中。

液化天然氣供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長30億立方米，以美國為首。在綜合需求和供應(yīng)預(yù)測方面，預(yù)計(jì)液化天然氣市場將比去年冬天略吃緊10億立方米。

一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍然存在于預(yù)測中，例如冬季天氣和疫情。

聯(lián)合國秘書長Yury Sentyurin承認(rèn)科學(xué)預(yù)測的重要性，他表示:“新冠肺炎從很多方面強(qiáng)調(diào)了數(shù)據(jù)的重要性，因此我們可以繪制和分析與疫情相關(guān)的措施對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)的影響。”

對(duì)未來一段時(shí)間的準(zhǔn)確規(guī)劃不僅取決于天氣和疫情，還取決于政府政策等因素，這些政策往往會(huì)改變液化天然氣的需求和定價(jià)。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Gas World

原文如下：

LNG demand expected to grow this winter

LNG demand is expected to increase by four billion cubic meters this winter, led by growth in China, Japan and South Asia.

That’s according to findings presented as part of a recent video conference organised by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), titled ‘Winter Outlook for Global LNG – Cautiously Optimistic’.

Hosted last week, the event featured a panel of experts, including Anne Kat Brevik, Director of LNG Research & Forecasts, Laura Page, Lead LNG Analyst, and Mr Hengky, Senior Analyst (LNG) from information provider Refinitiv.

“We expect LNG demand to increase by four billion cubic meters this winter and that’s led by growth in China, Japan and South Asia,” the representatives said.

“LNG supply is expected to grow by three billion cub meters, led by the US. And when we put together demand and supply forecast, we expect the LNG market to be slightly tighter than last winter by one billion cubic meters.”

Several risks still remain in the forecasts, such as winter temperatures and the pandemic.

Recognising the importance of scientifically drawn forecasts, HE Secretary General Yury Sentyurin, said, “In many ways, COVID-19 has highlighted the importance of data so we can map and understand the economic and social effects of pandemic-related measures.”

The conference’s audience further heard that accurate planning for the period ahead depends on not just weather and the pandemic but also factors such as government policies that can often change the course of LNG demand and pricing.